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El Nino’s coming, and it may mean more California rain

Posted by: Maven on July 17, 2009 at 7:47 am

From the Sacramento Bee:

Yes, it’s going to be hot again today and through the weekend. But there’s rain in Sacramento’s long-term forecast.

The ocean is warming up in the equatorial Pacific, leading scientists to herald the return of El Niño to the Sacramento region this winter. El Niño is a relaxation of trade winds over the equator, leading to higher ocean surface temperatures every two to five years. It can substantially alter global weather patterns, for better and worse.

Among the potential benefits, El Niño can help suppress Atlantic hurricanes. It also can lead to less wintry weather across the northern American states. Most important for Californians, El Niño sometimes brings higher-than-normal winter precipitation.

More from the Sacramento Bee by clicking here.

“Could” is the operative word, however, as this Sierra Sun article reminds us:

Historically, ENSO events have caused both dry and wet winters in the Sierra, with the influence on precipitation related to the strength of the event. Data on El Niño go back more than 140 years, but sea surface temperature readings are more reliable after World War II. Using data recorded since 1945, meteorologist Jan Null, a former lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in San Francisco, has made an analysis of eight strong (Type 1) El Niños. The results suggest that California has a 70 percent chance of above normal precipitation in a Type 1 event, with the best chances for wetter than normal weather from December to February.

Out of the eight strong El Niño events studied, San Francisco enjoyed five wet winters and Sacramento six. Los Angeles was wetter than normal all eight seasons. Considering that the Central Sierra storm track often follows the Interstate 80 corridor, if the sea surface temperatures get warm enough over the next five months, the odds are good that abundant snow and rain will fall on your favorite ski resort. Keep your fingers crossed.

Read more from the Sierra Sun by clicking here.

July 17, 2009 · Filed Under Drought, Weather & Snowpack

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