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Get ready for seven-foot sea level rise as climate change melts ice sheets; On the Public Record contemplates what that means to California

Posted by: Maven on January 15, 2010 at 7:30 am

From the Guardian Network & Yale Environment 360:

“The reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are balanced and comprehensive documents summarizing the impact of global warming on the planet. But they are not without imperfections, and one of the most notable was the analysis of future sea level rise contained in the latest report, issued in 2007.

Given the complexities of forecasting how much the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will contribute to increases in global sea level, the IPCC chose not to include these giant ice masses in their calculations, thus ignoring what is likely to be the most important source of sea level rise in the 21st century. Arguing that too little was understood about ice sheet collapse to construct a mathematical model upon which even a rough estimate could be based, the IPCC came up with sea level predictions using thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of mountain glaciers outside the poles. Its results were predictably conservative — a maximum of a two-foot rise this century — and were even a foot lower than an earlier IPCC report that factored in some melting of Greenland’s ice sheet. … “

Cutting to the chase, the scientists now think sea level rise could be as high as seven feet. Read more from the guardian.co.uk by clicking here.

The article doesn’t mention California, notes the On the Public Record blog, but makes several take-away points that apply:

“Sadly, the authors have some ridiculous east coast bias, and didn’t even talk about the Delta, instead talking about effects of sea level rise on states like “Mississippi” and “Florida” and “Vietnam”. Whatever. They list several take away lessons that I’ll apply to somewhere important, since they couldn’t be bothered.

Immediately prohibit the construction of high-rise buildings and major infrastructure in areas vulnerable to future sea level rise. Buildings placed in future hazardous zones should be small and movable — or disposable.

This isn’t about the Delta, but I’ve been enjoying watching the cliff crumble under this apartment building in SF.

Remember, y’all. As sea level rises, we”re not just talking about overtopping and inundation. We’re talking about more extreme tides, higher storm surges and more wave energy all the time. You remember your pressure triangle behind dams, right? (Go down to pg 40 for the figures.) And how the force exerted is a function of depth? I’ll let you figure out what this means for Delta levees by yourself. … “

Much more on this from the On the Public Record blog by clicking here.

January 15, 2010 · Filed Under Climate change & water supply

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