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Learning from our arid past; More droughts, less water — our future depends on adapting to scarcity, says commentary

Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on April 29, 2008 at 6:42 am

From the Los Angeles Times, this commentary, written by Brian Fagan, emeritus professor of anthropology at UC Santa Barbara and the author of “The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.” He begins his commentary by discussing tree ring data, which has shown that the earth has suffered through severe droughts unlike any seen in modern times.

Although today’s droughts are minuscule compared with the dry spells of 1,000 years ago, the future is truly frightening. Sophisticated computer models by Britain’s Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research predict a 3% to 18% increase in the amount of the Earth’s surface that will be exposed to extreme drought by 2100; 40% of the world will suffer from severe drought, up from the current 18%; 50% will suffer from moderate drought. California and other Western states, at the very least, will suffer from severe drought. By 2025, an estimated 2.8 billion of us will live in arid areas like California.

Today, we harvest water on an industrial scale — from rainfall, from rivers and lakes and from rapidly shrinking water tables. Many of us in California live off what are, effectively, looted water supplies, brought by canal from Owens Lake or the Colorado River or drained from aquifers.

But at best we have accommodated ourselves to nature’s fickle realities. Our greatest asset is not necessarily our technology but our opportunism and endless capacity to adapt to circumstances. We must learn from the history of the great droughts and begin to think of ourselves as partners with, rather than potential masters of, the changing natural world.

Read the full text of this commentary by Bruce Fagan by clicking here.

April 29, 2008 · Filed Under Climate change & water supply

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