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DWR weather and climate news: Liquid bailout, final call for meteorologist applications, and weather hydrology meetings get underway

Posted by: Maven on November 21, 2008 at 11:16 pm

From the Department of Water Resources, it’s the weather and climate news for November 21st:

In a first-of-its-kind Winter Outlook Workshop held today in San Diego, climate researchers gave their most in-depth analysis of what might be expected this winter in California. The whole several hours are very interesting, with everything from paleo-climate tree records to 5-day outlooks, to long-term climate change global modeling indications!

http://cawater.rmxpres.com/webcast/data/winoutlook2009112108/msh.htm

Are we in for a drought bailout from Mother Nature? Highlights are that there are no pronounced, or absolute indicators for what is perennially a difficult, if not impossible forecast. But a combination of factors over the world’s oceans all generally point in the same direction – this winter will hopefully last all winter. That being in sharp contrast to last winter, which shut off completely on March 1. This year, with a cold Northern Pacific temperature regime that seems to have begun in earnest last year or so, a weak La Nina (more in a moment), and the hope for more frequent warm, wet storms making it all the way across the Pacific, we have cautious optimism. The overall synopsis of the data presented today is that this should be a near-normal (close to average precip) water year in Northern California and perhaps the upper Colorado River basin, and a drier than normal winter for Southern California.

Even a normal water year may not be enough to replenish the state’s reservoirs. (Major ones are at one-quarter capacity, and half of their normal level this time of year):
http://www.water.ca.gov/drought/docs/110108current_conditions.pdf

What’s more, if only warm events come in throughout the winter, they won’t do much for State’s snowpack. Spring snowpack alone accounts for 35% of urban and ag water supply across the state (with Sierra precip in total responsible for 60% of the supply).

Our state has unique meteorology. Especially in southern California, a very few big wet days can make all the difference, and in some locations comprise the whole season. Determining conditions that lead to what are essentially outlier systems is hard. And if you miss just a handful of rainy days, or get one or two fewer than the five or so big storms in a typical northern CA winter, you’re low. It’s not over till the fat rain gauge sings! One presenter indicated we may even be heading for El Nino conditions, rather than persisting in a weak La Nina, or ENSO neutral state. That would actually be very good for precipitation chances, so we’ll see. The past few weeks have been less productive (i.e. weather speak for not as stormy) than the first week of November. But the ridge block that has been keeping things dry over the western U.S. could break down over the next 2 weeks.

Watch for announcements and recaps on the workshop at this site:
http://www.water.ca.gov/news/

Final call for meteorologist applicants. An Associate Meteorologist exam will be given at Department of Water Resources. All information is located at:
http://www.water.ca.gov/jobs/pdf/8WR65.pdf

Postmark is Monday, November 24.

Note: Internal, restricted access weather-hydrology flood briefings will begin on Tuesday, November 25.

The legacy of Bill Mork is being repeated. I remember years ago reading about his trips to Florida. Well, Maury Roos, Chief Hydrologist is there currently, and it’s my turn next week. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and yes, unsettled weather is likely over the holiday, perhaps more so for our southern end.

Another letter will come out in early December, with any storm updates, water supply outlooks, etc.

November 21, 2008 · Filed Under Drought, Weather & Snowpack

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