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State climatologist report: “The State of Climate Change Science for Water Resources Operations, Planning, and Management”

Posted by: Maven on January 29, 2009 at 7:59 am

From the California Water Plan E-News:

DWR has released a draft of State Climatologist Michael Anderson’s report regarding the state of climate change science for water resource operations, planning, and management. The document examines observations, paleoclimate, future projections, and planning and assessment tools that are used to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.

From the Executive Summary:

Our understanding of climate processes today includes the expectation that climate will be changing over the course of the next century to an extent that these changes must be accounted for in the water resources planning process. Much of our expectations arise from research sponsored by the California Energy Commission through their Public Interest in Energy Research (PIER) program. An update summary of their efforts is provided in a report by Moser and Franco (2008).

The current expectations for future changes in California’s climate include:
• Mean temperature increases from 2 to 6 degree C. California’s complex terrain will modulate the value locally.
• Unknown change to precipitation total but an increase in extreme wet and dry conditions. More precipitation will fall as rain than snow in higher elevations.
• Decreased snowpack particularly in the northern Sierra (up to 90% by 2100) and earlier melt time. Less mountain block recharge from snowpack expected with implications for long-term support of regional aquifers.
• Annual runoff concentrated more in winter months with more variability and greater extremes.
• Sea level rise up to 55 inches with the potential for higher rises
• Ecosystem challenges increased due to exacerbation of existing threats from above changes

These changes will increase the vulnerability of water resources infrastructure including flood control, water supply and wastewater treatment and disposal. The changes will challenge the current operations procedures for our water resources infrastructure and impact the planning for new projects. While many mitigation efforts are underway as part of Assembly Bill 32’s implementation, adaptation strategies such as those put forward in the DWR’s adaptation white paper (DWR, 2008a) will be needed to accommodate the changes that will occur due to climate change.

Read the rest of this report from DWR’s state climatologist by clicking here.

January 29, 2009 · Filed Under Climate change & water supply

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