Normal rainfall predicted for north state this winter
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on December 1, 2008 at 5:50 amFrom the Sacramento Bee:
Weather experts believe Northern California will see normal precipitation this winter – a welcome tonic after two years of drought. It’ll be just average, though. And these days, just average may not be enough.
There’s disagreement about whether a normal year will be sufficient to completely erase a water-level deficit left by drought. “Even if we get a nice, wet winter, there’s still going to be difficulties,” said Dave Kranz, a spokesman for the California Farm Bureau. It would take at least a couple years of good rain to replenish resources, he said.
Paltry rainfall during 2006 and 2007 marked the first time since the early 1990s that most of California saw two consecutive dry years. The state has so far shouldered the burden well, drawing on reserves and groundwater.
But the water supply can only stretch so far. Another dry season would likely mean mandatory restrictions on water use in many cities across the state – and would have a steep economic impact on everything from ski resorts to Central Valley farms.
Read more from the Sacramento Bee by clicking here.
State water supplies increasingly cloudy; Agencies hoping seeding process can help bolster key watersheds
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 29, 2008 at 7:10 amFrom Stockton’s Record:
Keep your eyes on the clouds rolling east this week. If they’re fat enough, they’ll get squeezed. Thirsty California water and power agencies - including those serving San Joaquin County - this winter are again sending pilots out to seed the clouds over key watersheds. In fact, the cloud-seeding programs are growing and could potentially double in coming years, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
The year’s first seeding in the central Sierra could happen this week if conditions are right.
The seeding involves the use of chemicals such as silver iodide that cause more water droplets or snowflakes to condense and fall to the ground. Various agencies spend more than $3 million a year statewide on the seeding, which typically generates rain and snow fall that yields an extra 300,000 to 400,000 acre-feet a year of water, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
An acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre 1 foot deep. Water managers say an acre-foot is about enough water to serve two typical family homes for a year.
“It definitely is worth it,” said Kevin Cunningham, hydro facilities manager for the Northern California Power Agency, which this year for the second time is seeding clouds over watersheds in Calaveras and Tuolumne counties that feed the North Fork Stanislaus River.
Read more from the Stockton Record by clicking here.
Farmers hope for wetter winter
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 28, 2008 at 8:41 amFrom Reno Gazette Journal:
Despite ending the irrigation season with more water in the Lahontan Reservoir than expected, Lahontan Valley farmers may face another year of water shortages, according to Ernie Schank, president of the board of directors of the Truckee Carson Irrigation District.
AdvertisementTCID officials initially estimated a final storage of 4,000 acre-feet in Lahontan, but the amount of water in storage by the end of the season totaled about 12,000 acre-feet, Schank said. “Whether the diversions came up or people used less than they thought they would, I don’t know.” As of Tuesday, the reservoir held 22,000 acre-feet, he added.
“If we don’t have at least an average snow year in the Sierra we are surely looking at another shortage,” Schank said. In the past 30 years, the average April to July runoff from the Carson River at Fort Churchill is 178,000 acre-feet. But that has fallen short the past two years. Two years ago, the Carson River supplied less than 50,000 acre-feet and last year it was at only about 80,000 acre-feet, according to Schank.
“Technically, other than in 2006, we’ve been in quite a drought cycle,” Schank said. The irrigation district has managed its resources well enough during the past few years because of the ability to divert several years of storage from Lake Tahoe and the Truckee River, he said. But this year the watershed has become depleted.
Read more from the Reno Gazette Journal by clicking here.
Rainfall sets records in Los Angeles
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 27, 2008 at 9:33 amFrom the Los Angeles Times:
The first significant storm of the season was moving out of Southern California on Wednesday night after dumping record amounts of rain in some areas but causing little further damage in the hillside areas denuded earlier this month by wildfires.
Flash flood warnings for some areas remained in effect throughout much of the day, however.
Cloudy skies — and a 30% chance of showers this morning — were forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the National Weather Service was predicting mostly sunshine for Friday.
The Pacific storm that rolled into the area Tuesday, prompting officials to issue mudslide warnings in the burn areas, caused power outages and traffic accidents and further snarled roadways already jammed with early holiday drivers.
Read more from the Los Angeles Times by clicking here.
Weather experts predict another dry winter for region
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 22, 2008 at 6:19 amFrom the San Francisco Chronicle:
Dodging a disastrous third year of drought in California could take the kind of winter mega-storms that leave almost as much ruin as they do rain. But even a few “pineapple express” storms - torrents of warm, wet air carried from the southwest - won’t totally offset two critically dry years and legal rulings that limit water pumping from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, scientists at a state water conference said Friday.
“We need much more than average (precipitation) to recover water storage, and even then we face an uncertain future with respect to the delta,” said Jeanine Johnson, interstate resources manager for the California Department of Water Resources. “The real message is, we need to plan and prepare as if 2009 will be dry.”
City representatives, water managers and consumers from across the state heard the twin “D” words - dry and drought - quite a lot at a first-ever winter precipitation outlook conference held Friday by the Department of Water Resources.
Read more from the San Francisco Chronicle by clicking here.
The San Diego Union Tribune adds this:
The long-range forecasters acknowledged that there was a great deal of uncertainty in their winter predictions. “There’s some room for a year that at least edges us toward normal precipitation (in Southern California),” Cayan said “It’s even possible that we’ll be above normal. But right now, it doesn’t look like a heavy winter in Southern California.”
Mike Dettinger, a colleague of Cayan’s at Scripps and the USGS, said patterns this year seem to favor a few “atmospheric rivers” of moisture during the winter. These rivers, more than a thousand miles long, could bring intense, multiday storms that would supply much of the year’s precipitation. “There’s modest hope for a break,” he said. “Don’t bet the farm on it, but don’t jump out of a window, either.”
Read more from the San Diego Union-Tribune by clicking here.
DWR weather and climate news: Liquid bailout, final call for meteorologist applications, and weather hydrology meetings get underway
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 21, 2008 at 11:16 pmFrom the Department of Water Resources, it’s the weather and climate news for November 21st:
In a first-of-its-kind Winter Outlook Workshop held today in San Diego, climate researchers gave their most in-depth analysis of what might be expected this winter in California. The whole several hours are very interesting, with everything from paleo-climate tree records to 5-day outlooks, to long-term climate change global modeling indications!
http://cawater.rmxpres.com/webcast/data/winoutlook2009112108/msh.htm
Are we in for a drought bailout from Mother Nature? Highlights are that there are no pronounced, or absolute indicators for what is perennially a difficult, if not impossible forecast. But a combination of factors over the world’s oceans all generally point in the same direction - this winter will hopefully last all winter. That being in sharp contrast to last winter, which shut off completely on March 1. This year, with a cold Northern Pacific temperature regime that seems to have begun in earnest last year or so, a weak La Nina (more in a moment), and the hope for more frequent warm, wet storms making it all the way across the Pacific, we have cautious optimism. The overall synopsis of the data presented today is that this should be a near-normal (close to average precip) water year in Northern California and perhaps the upper Colorado River basin, and a drier than normal winter for Southern California.
Even a normal water year may not be enough to replenish the state’s reservoirs. (Major ones are at one-quarter capacity, and half of their normal level this time of year):
http://www.water.ca.gov/drought/docs/110108current_conditions.pdfWhat’s more, if only warm events come in throughout the winter, they won’t do much for State’s snowpack. Spring snowpack alone accounts for 35% of urban and ag water supply across the state (with Sierra precip in total responsible for 60% of the supply).
Our state has unique meteorology. Especially in southern California, a very few big wet days can make all the difference, and in some locations comprise the whole season. Determining conditions that lead to what are essentially outlier systems is hard. And if you miss just a handful of rainy days, or get one or two fewer than the five or so big storms in a typical northern CA winter, you’re low. It’s not over till the fat rain gauge sings! One presenter indicated we may even be heading for El Nino conditions, rather than persisting in a weak La Nina, or ENSO neutral state. That would actually be very good for precipitation chances, so we’ll see. The past few weeks have been less productive (i.e. weather speak for not as stormy) than the first week of November. But the ridge block that has been keeping things dry over the western U.S. could break down over the next 2 weeks.
Watch for announcements and recaps on the workshop at this site:
http://www.water.ca.gov/news/Final call for meteorologist applicants. An Associate Meteorologist exam will be given at Department of Water Resources. All information is located at:
http://www.water.ca.gov/jobs/pdf/8WR65.pdfPostmark is Monday, November 24.
Note: Internal, restricted access weather-hydrology flood briefings will begin on Tuesday, November 25.
The legacy of Bill Mork is being repeated. I remember years ago reading about his trips to Florida. Well, Maury Roos, Chief Hydrologist is there currently, and it’s my turn next week. Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and yes, unsettled weather is likely over the holiday, perhaps more so for our southern end.
Another letter will come out in early December, with any storm updates, water supply outlooks, etc.
Coachella Valley’s winter weather could be colder or warmer
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 21, 2008 at 11:07 pmNow there’s a headline that says it all …. From MyDesert.com:
Snowbirds and residents in the Coachella Valley can look forward to a winter that can best be described as noncommittal.
Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released Thursday are projecting weather in Southern California for the next three months that is either slightly warmer or slightly colder than normal, and no, no one is saying which.
“It’s equal chances it’s above normal or below normal,” said Stefanie Sullivan, a meterologist for the National Weather Service in San Diego, who was equally noncommittal about commenting on the NOAA forecast.
Read more from MyDesert.com by clicking here.
DWR warns of drought, water rationing in 2009
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 20, 2008 at 5:54 amFrom Capitol Weekly:
California faces another drought as 2009 approaches, and the state’s top water officials say they’re doing what they can to prevent water shortages. But projections show that 2009 could look like the early, parched 1990s — or even worse.
Nine counties have already requested emergency drought assistance, including Sacramento, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern.
Wendy Martin, statewide drought coordinator for the state Department of Water Resources (DWR), said the state has informed contractors they will only receive 15 percent of their normal allocation.
As of Sept. 1, the drought has cost farmers of the Central Valley $260 million, a figure that doesn’t factor in the amount for crops that won’t be harvested this fall. Many farmers are being forced to make difficult choices, including abandoning harvesting some crops this year altogether. Many nut crops, especially almonds and walnuts, are being abandoned. These crops are being hit worse than crops toward the north of the state because they are down-stream from the Delta.
“The North is okay,” Martin said. “The South is more dependent on imported water… It has a cascading effect.”
Read more from Capitol Weekly by clicking here.
Accu-Weather forecast: Is much needed rain coming? Maybe!
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 19, 2008 at 7:45 amFrom Accu-Weather:
The horrific fires in southern California last weekend just emphasized the need for rain. So far this Fall precipitation has been on the scarce side and there have been a number of times when temperatures have soared well above normal. The brush is very dry for this time of year.
Some of the computer models since last week, especially the GFS, has been showing a chance of rain during Thanksgiving week. Today the GFS continues to advertise a rain possibility next week, in fact two separate rain events. Of how nice that would be.
The GFS has this rain coming in late Tuesday into Wednesday. The upper level chart shows a rather nice low moving in and the surface chart shows a decent amount of rain falling.
Check out the weather charts and more of this post from Accu-Weather by clicking here.
Landscape designers apply nature’s tricks
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 19, 2008 at 6:09 amFrom the San Francisco Chronicle:
We don’t claim to be trend-spotters. However, we picked up on something encouraging at a recent Ruth Bancroft Garden seminar in Walnut Creek, where two prestigious designers spoke about their use of native plants and natural hydrologic processes.
Susan Van Atta, from Santa Barbara, is explicitly engaged in ecological restoration in many of her Southern California projects. Bernard Trainor, now in Monterey but active from the Carmel Valley to Marin County, says his gardens aren’t about replicating nature. But both converged on similar themes: looking at natural landscapes for inspiration and, as Trainor puts it, “learning tricks from nature and applying them.”
Van Atta has taken on institutional as well as residential projects. She described the making of Lagoon Park at UC Santa Barbara, recognized with an American Society of Landscape Architects special honor award. The site, once covered with coastal marshes, meadows and vernal pools, had been transformed beyond recognition. Van Atta tried to visualize what had originally been there, and to restore not just plant communities but ecosystem services.
In addition to bringing back the meadows, she created a bioswale, which is a living pollution filter. Much of the pollutant load comes from gulls roosting on campus buildings. Newly planted areas now capture pollutants from runoff before it reaches the lagoon.
Read more from the San Francisco Chronicle by clicking here.
Solar cycles and Sierra weather: Are they related?
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 18, 2008 at 6:29 amFrom the Sierra Sun:
It’s November and skiers and snowboarders are biting at the bit to get out on the slopes. Getting enough natural snowfall in November for skiing is often a challenge in the Sierra, but colder temperatures usually give regional resorts an opportunity to pump out an early base with snowmaking equipment.
At the Central Sierra Snow Laboratory near Donner Pass, November storms are important, as they usually produce more than 10 percent of the average yearly totals, with 48 inches of snow and enough rain to total more than six inches of precipitation. On average, about 75 percent of California’s annual precipitation falls between November and March; half occurs between December and February.
When it comes to weather in the West, averages are hard to come by. More often than not, desiccating droughts are broken by heavy winters, when torrential downpours soak the lower elevations and snow falls thick and deep in the High Sierra. The resulting snowmelt invigorates parched rivers, replenishes empty reservoirs, and resuscitates the withered landscape in a natural cycle as old as the West itself.
Drought-busting seasons come along every so often, but after 100 years, the wild winter of 1906-07 continues to reign as the snowiest on record in the Sierra Nevada. The winter of ’07 ranks as the 10th snowiest on Donner Pass, at just over 7,000 feet. But at the higher elevations the snowfall was epic. Powerful Pacific storms that year buried elevations above 8,000 feet with a snowpack that averaged 30-feet deep, and established California’s greatest seasonal snowfall total of 884 inches — more than 73 feet!
Read more from the Sierra Sun by clicking here.
County bracing for another dry winter; Rationing, fires and farm woes could result
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 13, 2008 at 6:00 amFrom the Ventura County Star:
Times are tough out there, and the forecasts don’t look so hot, either. Experts say we might have a way to go before the worst is realized, and they are bracing for hard times ahead. Are we talking about the waning stock market? The exploded housing bubble? The credit crunch? No, what is on many minds in Southern California is much more elemental — water.
With a forecast for winter rain that would excite only a Las Vegas bookmaker and a promise of less water delivery from Northern California, many in Ventura County are bracing for a dry winter, which could mean water rationing, another year of hillsides ablaze and the potential for farmers to have less water available for crops.
“Like most agencies, we are examining the options that we have in terms of looking at drought restrictions,” said Jeff Reinhardt, spokesman with Las Virgenes Municipal Water District, which serves Westlake Village, Agoura Hills and other regions of western Los Angeles County, and is anticipating water allocations next year even if this winter is a soaker. “At this point, we are planning as if it is going to happen.”
The National Climatic Data Center is predicting a 50 percent chance that this winter will be a drier-than-normal one for Southern California. It’s also saying there is a 50 percent chance that it could be wetter, but considering that the last few winters have been among the driest on record, few are optimistic that it will be wetter.
Read more from the Ventura County Star by clicking here.
County water supplies holding up despite statewide drought
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 12, 2008 at 5:37 amFrom the Santa Ynez Valley News:
Although California is facing a severe drought, local farmers, ranchers and county officials say Santa Barbara County is faring pretty well.
In fact, Fred Chamberlin, a Santa Ynez Valley cattle rancher who was forced to sell off about 90 percent of his herd in the summer of 2007, said he hopes it won’t rain too soon — at least not until after Thanksgiving this year.
“It’s the cattle business, and some years you have a lot of grass and some years you don’t,” said Chamberlin, whose acres of grazing land would be damaged by early, heavy rains. “There’s a time for everything and there’s a time for rain, but that time’s not now.”
The county receives water from a variety of sources including local surface water, groundwater and imported state water and, combined with favorable winter conditions, the county has sufficient supplies, county staff members said.
Read more from the Santa Ynez Valley News by clicking here.
Shallow reservoirs indicate deep drought
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 8, 2008 at 6:55 amFrom KGO Channel 7, San Francisco:
After two years of dry weather, some California reservoirs are approaching record low levels. The situation is so bad, even a normal rain year will not pull some of Northern California’s key reservoirs out of their alarming state, which means rationing could become a way of life for many Bay Area water users for a very long time.
How low will they go? Despite some early rain, many Northern California reservoirs remain in dire condition.
“Bleak, it looks very bleak,” said Jeremy Bernau, chairman of the Folsom Economic Development Corporation which depends on Folsom Lake for its very survival. The lake now sits at just 25 percent of capacity, its lowest level since the early 1990s.
“This is very scary when it comes to the ability for California to meet its future needs,” said Bernau. “Water is a precious resource that we need to make sure is available for our healthy economy.”
The lake is so low, hundreds of boats at the marina at Brown’s Ravine had to be pulled out of the water, just days before the 4th of July holiday. The boat ramps were closed at the height of the summer season and now the floating marina slips sit on the ground, grass growing up between them.
Read more and watch a video of the broadcast from KGO San Francisco by clicking here.
California drought forces cattle ranchers to downsize
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 7, 2008 at 6:21 amFrom the Associated Press:
California’s worst drought in decades is forcing the state’s cattle ranchers to downsize their herds because two years of poor rainfall have ravaged millions of acres of rangeland used to feed their cows and calves.
The parched, yellow pastures on Joe Gonzales’ cattle ranch attest to the severity of a dry spell that is devastating the economic fortunes of many of the state’s beef producers. Gonzales, who normally runs 500 cows on his 2,000-acre spread about 30 miles south of San Jose, cut his herd by half over the past year and may have to sell more if the drought persists. “When there’s no rain, there’s no grass,” said Gonzales, 65. “As the drought continues, you have to either continue to feed your cattle or sell them. … It’s the worst I’ve seen it in more than 30 years.”
During most dry years, California cattlemen send their herds to places with healthier pastures or buy supplemental feed to sustain their animals until the rainy season. But high fuel prices, a lack of green pastures in California and neighboring states, and the soaring cost of livestock feed have left ranchers little choice but to sell off their mother cows because they can ill afford to feed them.
Read more from the Associated Press by clicking here.
DWR Weather and Climate News: Rainfall totals from recent storms, upcoming events
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 7, 2008 at 6:00 amFrom DWR Meteorologist Elissa Lynn:
We have a WinNer! We have a WinTer! …
Congratulations to recipient 1500 of the Weather and Climate Newsletter! Rob Floerke, retired Department of Fish and Game, was the 1500th person to sign up. A resident of Davis, Floerke is an active outdoor enthusiast. He works with K thru 6 students in the Discover the Flyway program and assists with Yolo Basin Foundation tours (second Saturday of the month) on the wildlife area. The Yolo Basin Foundation web site is: www.yolobasin.org A few fun favors are being sent: DWR lapel pin, ball cap, business card holder, and rain gauge; a CoCoRaHS t-shirt, and an offer to tour the Flood Center. Thanks, Dale, for your support of weather observation and forecasting. We’ve moved well above 1500, now, in total readership. Maybe another milestone contest will take place. Say, when we reach a million. :)
What a great start to the rainy season. Last weekend’s prodigious rain came in 3 waves, with a follow up system earlier this week. That last one was a good deal colder. With the added use of snow blowers, Boreal Ski Area on I-80 and Mammoth Mountain each have ONE run open! Here are some seasonal totals, with percentage of normal for this date, if available. (Note: The hydrologic Water Year starts on October 1; that is the date used for the Northern Sierra 8-Station Index, and the new San Joaquin 5-Station Southern Sierra Index. That is also the seasonal start date for most monitoring sites used for river forecasting.)
As of November 6,
Northern Sierra 8.0″ 186%
Southern Sierra 4.8″ 200%Gasquet 12.52″
Angwin 5.68″
McCloud 10.16″
CSU-Sacramento 2.86″
Pine Crest, Stanislaus River 6.98″
Black Mountain, Salinas River 1.04″Early warm storms do not provide the vital spring snowpack, which provides 60% of the state’s urban and agricultural water supply. Drought conditions remain in place, in terms of reservoir and broader supply factors. However, on the very up side, it’s a very good start, and hopefully an indicator of a pattern that will maintain itself through the winter. It’s not over till the fat rain gauge sings.
California is facing a water crisis, says editorial
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 5, 2008 at 5:51 amFrom the Contra Costa Times, this editorial:
The California Department of Water Resources sent out a danger signal recently and we Californians had better heed the warnings. The state plans on cutting water deliveries to their second lowest level in history. Agency officials announced only 15 percent of the water that local agencies have requested will be delivered this season.
The warning is quite clear — barring a miracle, get ready for water rationing and fewer crops from farmers.
Even though we have had some early rain, the situation remains bleak. Regional water officials have urged Californians to immediately reduce their water use to stretch whatever thin supply remains.
One farmer in Kern County called the water projections disastrous. The signs are abundant that the recent drought is beginning to rear its ugly head.
Lake Oroville is the state’s second largest reservoir. Normally it would be half full at the start of November; currently it stands at only 30 percent. The San Luis Reservoir, south of San Jose, is barely over 10 percent of capacity.
In Southern California, the Metropolitan Water District has used more than a third of its reserves.
Low snowpack levels in the Sierra last winter and the deteriorating ecosystem in the Delta that led a federal court to limit water pumping have brought us to what must be considered a crisis.
Read more of this editorial from the Contra Costa Times by clicking here.
Despite rains, water outlook remains grim
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 5, 2008 at 5:41 amFrom the California Farm Bureau Federation:
After months without rain, the season’s first significant storms came ashore just as officials warned of rapidly dwindling water supplies and severe shortages next year. State water experts said that rationing is a growing likelihood for 2009, despite the rain that fell over much of the state last week.
The comments came along with an early announcement of a preliminary 15 percent water delivery allocation from the State Water Project, the second lowest allocation in project history. The early warning is intended to provide water districts, cities and farms time for advance conservation planning and crop decisions.
“This initial allocation level has implications for water users at all levels, not just agriculture,” said Chris Scheuring, managing counsel of the California Farm Bureau Federation Natural Resources and Environmental Division. “A substantial portion of the irrigated land we depend on for crops will be fallowed. This isn’t just an issue for agriculture, it’s a food-supply issue for everyone.”
No clues for weather forecasters; Unpredictible storm system may leave state facing another dry year, but onion skins and caterpillar coats say average winter on the way
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 3, 2008 at 7:09 amFrom the Fresno Bee:
Forecasters are flipping a coin when asked whether California will endure a third dry year in a row. Maybe yes, maybe no.
Meteorologists can’t bet one way or the other this year because there is no warm-water El Niño or cold-water La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño can mean more rain; La Niña can mean less. This year, the ocean is La Nada — the unofficial term that means the ocean’s water temperature is normal, offering no clues for forecasters and little encouragement for farmers or reservoir operators.
“I have yet to see a long-range forecast that I would put money on,” said meteorologist and consultant Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services, based in Saratoga.
Some are pinning their hopes on the Madden/Julian Oscillation:
There is one climate hint called the Madden/Julian Oscillation — a powerful tropical wave of wind that circles the globe in 30 to 60 days.
The wave is occurring right now and helped bring the first significant rain and snow to the state this weekend. Sometimes the wave also sets up a pineapple express, blowing a steady stream of storms thousands of miles across the Pacific into California. The storms this weekend could signal the start of a wet November.
But forecasting this wave is a longshot compared to El Niño and La Niña. The phenomenon is not well understood. Government scientists won’t use it in predicting this winter’s precipitation.
“We have no idea if it will continue through the winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.
Read more from the Fresno Bee by clicking here.
However, according to Tom Steinstra of the San Francisco Chronicle, this season should be pretty much average. He looked at bird migration timing, onion skins (thin means a mild winter coming, thick means a rough winter) & the thickness of caterpillar coats, and files this prediction:
Nature’s signs mean a wet late fall and early winter, with significant storms arriving around the new moon of late November (Thanksgiving Day), and just prior to the full moon in early December (Dec. 8-10 looks promising). After a dry period in the early New Year, January and February will bring about average precipitation. I don’t expect a terribly wet spring in March and April. The final result for winter will be about average rainfall, wetter in the beginning, a bit drier at the end,
This is why:
– Birds never lie: The annual migration of sandhill cranes to the Woodbridge Ecological Reserve near Lodi and snow geese to Sacramento Wildlife Refuge near Willows is right on schedule. The timing of these migrations is often a reliable weather predictor.
– Onion skins: The thickness of skins from onions grown in the San Joaquin Valley looks pretty average.
– Caterpillars: Those furry coats indicate early, heavy precipitation is on the way.
– Ocean/land temperatures: A reliable theory I’ve developed is that when ocean temps and coast land temps are the same, the storms wheel right in. That’s the case right now in Humboldt County, so look for wet weather. When the ocean is colder and the land is warmer, it often acts like a blockade and pushes the storms into Oregon, which creates periods of drought, like this past spring.
He also predicts the snow lines on these storms will be higher than usual. Read more from Tom Steinstra & the San Francisco Chronicle by clicking here.
Drought may put strain on utilities; Central Basin district proposes allocation plan
Posted by: Aqua Blog Maven on November 2, 2008 at 8:06 amFrom the Whittier Daily News:
The statewide drought could become a financial drain for many local water utilities. The Central Basin Municipal Water District, which serves this area, has developed a water supply allocation plan in case Metropolitan Water District activates its drought plan.
Local agencies could be required to reduce their water use by as little as 2 percent (stage one) or up to as much as 58 percent (stage 10). The penalties for exceeding your limit will be severe, ranging from 21/2 times to five times the amount utilities already pay Central Basin.
The district buys water from MWD and then resells it to water utilities in the southeast area of Los Angeles County.
In light of Thursday’s announcement that the state Water Project may only allocate 15 percent of MWD’s normal allotment, Art Aguilar, Central Basin general manager, said he believes the plan will be activated. “I don’t know what stage they’ll call, but I’m fairly certain Metropolitan will call an alert,” Aguilar predicted.
It would take a “miracle in rainfall” this year for the plan not to be activated, Aguilar said.
Read more from the Whittier Daily News by clicking here.
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